Showing posts with label Crimea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crimea. Show all posts

Sunday, August 7, 2016

Russia Isn't America's Enemy

Hillery Clinton claims that Donald Trump cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons.   Actually, it's Hillary Clinton and her supporters I don't trust with nuclear weapons.   Based on comments made at the Democratic convention they still think Russia is our enemy.

Hillary's preoccupation with nuclear weapons implies she thinks there is a possibility of a new cold war with Russia even though there would be  no reason for such a war.unless she created one

We need a president who recognizes that Russia is not our enemy.  The Cold War ended decades ago.

Russia is not our enemy.  Neither is the Democratic Republic of Vietnam or the People's Republic of China.   There is no international communist conspiracy to take over the world.  The United States is even normalizing relations with Cuba.

Anti-Russian groups  misrepresent Russia as the villain in the Ukraine civil war  instead of recognizing that the real villain  is the  European Union and/or President Barack Obama.

The fact is that when Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych rejected a demand to turn control of Ukraine over to the European Union, a Nazi Germany like "fifth column" overthrew the legitimate government and replaced it with an EU puppet government.  There is disagreement about whether the EU or President Barack Obama directed the coup.  The West Europeans and the United States both have a history of such behavior.   The quick recognition of the rebel's control by the EU means the EU was aware of the plot even if it didn't order it.

The illegal change in government broke any contract between Ukraine and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.   The people of Crimea were free to become independent or seek an association with Russia.  Thus there is nothing wrong with Russia working with Crimea.

 The anti-Russian attitudes expressed by some of the rebels created an understandable fear of  a Balkan type "ethnic cleansing" campaign against ethnic Russians.   Ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine recognized they were not wanted  and sought to separate from Ukraine.  Russia has been far more restrained in responding to this situation then the United States has been in the past.  

The United States has invaded other countries for far less significant reasons.  The U.S. invasion of Libya could be used as justification for Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.

Friday, May 2, 2014

Russia Should Follow U.S. Example in Eastern Ukraine

Russia should respond to the situation in the Ukraine by following the precedent set by the United States in a comparable situation.   Russia should offer to purchase the Russian populated areas whose residents want to leave Ukraine much like the United States purchased California from Mexico.

In the 1840's people from the United States had settled in parts of Mexico, but were not happy with the Mexican government.    U.S. citizens in the Texas region  had openly revolted and gained independence from Mexico.  People in California were also interested in leaving Mexico.   The United States annexed Texas and a border dispute led to war between the United States and Mexico.   The United States won the war but instead of simply taking other territory from Mexico forced Mexico to sell California and additional areas to the United States.  The United States also assumed some debts that Mexico  owed to U.S citizens.  

The Russians in the eastern Ukraine don't want to be part of Ukraine any more than the U.S. citizens in California and Texas wanted to be part of Mexico.  Russia should help them leave by offering to purchase the region from Ukraine once the people of Ukraine vote for a new government.   Government officials chosen in an election have authority from the people to act.  Officials who came to power as a result of mob action have no authority from the people to act. 

Russia should also consider compensating Ukraine for the its loss of Crimea.  The separation of Crimea from Ukraine was comparable to a divorce.  Often one party to a divorce will compensate the other by paying alimony to the other/  Russia could undermine claims that it "stole" Crimea by paying alimony to Ukraine.  Paying for something isn't stealing.

The mob overthrow of a president from eastern Ukraine and talk of eliminating Russian as an official language indicates that many Ukrainians don't want Russians in their country. The presences of racist elements in the anti-government mob indicates the overthrow may have been in part motivated by ethnic prejudice.   Russians in Ukraine fear that failure to allow the Russian region to leave Ukraine could result in use of violence against them.   

Failure to allow the Russian region to leave could lead to prolonged efforts against the Ukraine government. European ethnic conflicts [such as the Basque conflict in Spain and the conflict between Irish Catholics and English Protestants in Northern Ireland]  can last for generations.

Americans tend to think of ethnic conflicts in terms of differences in skin color, but differences in culture can produce the same results as was the case in Adolf Hitler's efforts to exterminate the Jewish people.

During the collapse of the Soviet empire, the residents of Czechoslovakia recognized that they would have a better chance of success if they split into two countries.  Ukrainians made a mistake by keeping the arbitrary political boundaries set by the old Soviet Union.   The Soviet Union to a large extent was a Russian empire.  Keeping Russian regions in Ukraine means Ukrainians are still subject to control by politicians chosen in part by  Russians.   Eliminating the Russian regions from Ukraine would make Ukrainians truly independent of Russia.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Crimea Separation from Ukraine Best for Everyone

Contrary to the opinion of President Barack Obama there is nothing illegal about the recent vote for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea to leave the chaotic situation in The Ukraine.   In 1991 the Ukraine separated itself from the deteriorating government of the then  Soviet Union by a declaration of independence and created a precedent for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea to separate itself from The Ukraine.  The obvious instability associated with the fall of the Ukrainian government justified The Republic of Crimea's exit from The Ukraine.

If there was a recent violation of international law in The Ukraine it is more likely associated with the mob that overthrew the elected government.  That mob closely resembled a fifth column like Nazi Germany used against nations it wanted to conquer.    If the European Union accepts The Ukraine for membership now the EU will be implying it helped overthrow of The Ukraine government.  If the EU accepts The Ukraine without waiting for at least two elections, not counting the upcoming one, the EU will imply it eliminated a government that opposed EU membership so the EU could conquer The Ukraine.

Requiring The Ukraine to first demonstrate it is a stable democracy that changes government only through elections will indicate that the EU recognizes The Ukraine's political instability makes it an undesirable member.    The recent use of mob rule to change the government indicates the presence of a cancer that must first be isolated and cured before The Ukraine is considered healthy enough to be allowed into the EU.  Allegations that some of the groups responsible have previously supported extremist views should be of particular concern to EU members,  

The EU needs to conduct a thorough investigation of the recent change in The Ukraine's government so member nations know what they need to do to prevent similar events in their countries.   The EU needs to identify any business individuals  or non-Ukrainians involved so EU members will know who to watch out for.

Political instability such as that associated with the fall of the Ukrainian government can lead to ethic violence in countries with strong ethnic divisions.  Without a stable central government, the Crimean Republic  had to take over the responsibility of protecting its citizens.  Separating from the ineffectual Ukrainian government made that job easier.   Crimea's "divorce" from The Ukraine will reduce the potential for an ethnic centered civil war between the Russians of Crimea and the Ukrainians.   Reducing ethnic tensions will reduce the demands on the Ukrainian government and simplify the task of restoring a stable government. 

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Russia Should Buy Crimea

The best way to resolve the situation in Crimea in the event the residents want to separate from the Ukraine would be for Russia to purchase the territory.   Russia could then allow the Crimeans to decide what status they wanted such as becoming an independent state or joining the other ethnic Russians in the Russian Federation.

I was going to include this suggestion in a post dealing with the situation in general but decided the proposal would be more likely to be noticed if suggested in a separate post.    I believe the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo  which ended the war between the United States and Mexico in 1848 suggests a resolution of the conflict over control of Crimea.

A dispute over whether an area (occupied by persons who identified with the United States) which is now the State of Texas was independent sparked a short war between the United States and Mexico. The United States easily won the war but then agreed  to purchase another part of Mexico that was attracting settlers who identified with the United States.  The purchase eliminated the potential for a future conflict between residents of that area and the Mexican government 

Crimea is something of value so it would be fair for The Ukraine to receive compensation for its loss.  The payment for Crimea could be thought of as compensation for money the national government of The Ukraine has spent on the region for such expenditures as government buildings or infrastructure items like roads.  The payment would replace tax money that would no longer be collected from Crimea.

Payment wouldn't need to take the form of money.   Russia has ample energy resources and The Ukraine already obtains energy from Russia.   Thus, natural gas or some other fuel might be used as compensation.   The Ukrainian government has  had a  policy of trying to keep energy costs down for its citizens.   Russia might significantly  reduce what it charges for natural gas for the next 10 - 20 years with an implication that the discount would be passed along to individuals.  Russia might also offer to compensate anyone wishing to move from Crimea to the Ukraine or The Ukraine to Crimea.

Ukrainian officials need to recognize the potential costs of trying to force Russian Crimeans to stay in a country where they don't feel they  belong can lead to civil conflict including terrorist bombings.  The conflicts between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland  and the actions of the Basque separatists in Spain demonstrate what can happen.   If some Ukrainians decided to start a Balkans style ethnic cleansing campaign, Russia would feel compelled to invade.